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Penn and Fitch are entering this fight likely knowing the winner will likely fight for the UFC Welterweight Championship once again later this year. For Penn, his motivation isn't the title these days so much as it is facing bigger and bigger challenges, and Fitch fits that bill.
Fitch has amassed a 13-1 record in the UFC, his only defeat being to Georges St. Pierre, who also handed Penn his last loss at welterweight. In those 13 wins, he's been an imposing and overwhelming force, not allowing any opponent much success.
Penn, meanwhile, comes into this off his most vicious win in years when he destroyed Matt Hughes in November.
This fight will be decided by a couple of factors, the first of which is whether or not Penn can keep the fight on the feet. Fitch will look to take him down early and often, and he'll need to stay off his back to utilize his advantage in the striking game.
That's the second factor. If Penn keeps the fight on the fight, it turns into a question of whether or not he can damage Fitch enough to either finish him or win two of the three rounds. The second scenario isn't out of the question, but even if he gets chances on the feet, and he may, Fitch can take punishment, and I can't see Penn finishing him when he's never been finished in the UFC.
But Penn lighting Fitch up for at least two rounds is less likely than Fitch taking Penn down often and wearing him down enough to earn at least two rounds himself.
PREDICTION: Fitch via unanimous decision
Michael Bisping vs. Jorge Rivera (Middleweight)
Jorge Rivera talked himself into a big time fight with Bisping, and has ratcheted up his trash talk with a series of videos making fun of Bisping in a number of ways. It has riled the Brit up ahead of the fight, but it remains to be seen whether that would have any negative affects on Bisping at all on Saturday.
Rivera's got some good striking, and hits pretty hard, but he's not going to have much of a chance to lay the punishment on Bisping in this fight. "The Count" has a very good boxing game, and his striking and footwork should be the difference in this fight. Rivera is capable of hurting Bisping and scoring an upset, it's just not all that likely to happen in Australia.
PREDICTION: Bisping via unanimous decision
George Sotiropoulos vs. Dennis Siver (Lightweight)
Georges Sotiropoulos has done nothing but win in the UFC. The Aussie is 7-0 in the organization, and has fought an increasingly higher level of competition up until now.
Siver is a dangerous striker, and has had some excellent performances in the UFC, but he represents a step back for a fighter that can contend with anyone in the UFC's top 10 right now. Sotiropoulos' top game is insanely good, and his game off his back is a strength as well.
His striking isn't on par, and it's certainly possible that Siver can do some damage on his feet. However, Sotiropoulos is certainly going to get Siver to the ground at some point in this contest, and his submission game should get the job tone.
PREDICTION: Sotiropoulos via submission in the second round
Chris Lytle vs. Brian Ebersole (Welterweight)
Losing Carlos Condit hurt this card badly, because his fight with Lytle would have been fantastic, and relevant, and neither of those labels will be applied to this matchup ahead of time. Perhaps Ebersole comes out with the fight of his career and this becomes a massively entertaining fight; but as it stands, with him stepping in on late notice and just being thrown into this fight, there's not much to look forward to.
Ebersole is a solid veteran with a long fight career, but Lytle has faced a vastly greater level of competition throughout his career, especially over the last few years. There's no reason Lytle should lose this fight.
PREDICTION: Lytle via submission in the second round
Kyle Noke vs. Chris Camozzi (Middleweight)
Noke returns home in his first fight on Australian soil in nearly three years, and on the heels of two impressive wins inside the Octagon. Camozzi as well has won two straight after the two left The Ultimate Fighter house after season 11, though his decision wins haven't been the decisive victories that Noke has put together.
Camozzi is a good fighter, has good wrestling and should be a good challenge for Noke, but the 30-year-old Aussie is in front of a hometown crowd in a big fight on pay-per-view, and I think he'll make an impression again at home.
PREDICTION: Noke via submission in the third round
=====PRELIMINARY CARD QUICK PICKS=====
* Riki Fukuda over Nick Ring via unanimous decision
* Alexander Gustafsson over James Te-Huna via TKO in the first round
* Ross Pearson over Spencer Fisher via unanimous decision
* Anthony Perosh over Tom Blackledge via submission in the first round
* Tie Quan Zhang over Jason Reinhardy via submission in the second round
* Chris Tuchscherer over Mark Hunt via TKO in the first round
* Maciej Jewtuszko over Curt Warburton via TKO in the first round
=====MMATORCH CONFIDENCE AND BETTING CONTEST PICKS=====
12 - Lytle
11 - Sotiropoulos
10 - Bisping
9 - Gustafsson
8 - Fitch
7 - Noke
6 - Tuchscherer
5 - Zhang
4 - Fukuda
3 - Jewtuszko
2 - Pearson
1 - Perosh
$200 parlay on Noke, Fukuda, Jewtuszko
$300 Fukuda
$100 Perosh
$400 Fitch
Justin Eilers Jon Olav Einemo Per Eklund Jason Ellis Aleksander Emelianenko
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