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Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum (Heavyweight Grand Prix Quarterfinal)
This rematch of a 2006 fight has both fighters in much improved positions than when they met in Pride. After losing to Werdum, Overeem would only win two of his next six fights over the next year and a half, but he's since won nine of ten fights over nearly four years, with the tenth being a no contest.
That four year stretch has seen Overeem turn himself into a legitimate heavyweight powerhouse, though he's still yet to face top competition in the sport, and Werdum marks a significant jump up from the fighters he's faced in that time. But in addition to his MMA success, Overeem added a kickboxing title in K-1 in 2010, and has developed his striking game into one of the best in the division.
Werdum hasn't been nearly as active as Overeem, fighting just nine times in the five years since their first bout. He's gone 6-3 in those nine fights, with a three fight winning streak coming into this bout. However, Werdum scored a career highlight in his last bout when he submitted Fedor Emelianenko last June.
This fight pegs Overeem's striking game against Werdum's ground game, and it's that ground challenge that could be the biggest test for Overeem in a while. Werdum is one of the more capable submission fighters in the heavyweight division, and if he can get the fight to the ground, he can put Overeem in trouble and find a way to finish the fight. That said, it's got to get to the ground first. With Overeem's staying frequently active and with his striking being as dangerous as ever, along with Werdum's year-long layoff, I've got to favor the improved Strikeforce Champ to exact revenge in this rematch.
PREDICTION: Overeem via TKO in the first round
Josh Barnett vs. Brett Rogers (Heavyweight Grand Prix Quarterfinal)
Despite his issues in the U.S., Barnett fought twice in 2010, albeit overseas. His bout with kickboxer Might Mo in DREAM last March was his first in over a year, and then he defeated Geronimo Dos Santos in July, but he hasn't fought since then while awaiting the start of this tournament.
Rogers has picked up a win outside of the organization since losing back to back fights to Fedor Emelianenko and Alistair Overeem, but his performance against Ruben "Warpath" Villareal last October is one that's best forgotten. Now he's entering the Strikeforce tournament against another immensely experienced opponent, and he's hoping to make a statement here.
Rogers has a good striking game, and the power to finish most opponents. The problem is, he's not shown much in his ground game thus far, and Barnett's a very capable wrestler and grappler. Not to mention the fact that Barnett's striking has continued to improve.
A lot of fans will be cheering Rogers on in this fight, hoping he can put "the villain" Barnett out to rid the tournament of him, but while I think he has a chance to do just that, I don't think he'll get it done, and on the ground he'll find himself in trouble.
PREDICTION: Barnett via submission in the second round
K.J. Noons vs. Jorge Masvidal (Lightweight)
This is an excellent lightweight fight, not just by Strikeforce standards but by any for the lightweight division. Masvidal doesn't have a lot of marquee wins under his belt, but his performance at 170 lbs. in a losing effort against Paul Daley was commendable, and his win over Billy Evangelista in March was extremely impressive.
Noons is returning to the lightweight division after dropping a decision to Nick Diaz in a Welterweight Championship bout last October. That loss snapped a six-fight win streak dating back to 2007.
Masvidal's got a good striking game, but it's not near the level of Noons' boxing in MMA competition. I fully expect this fight to be contested on the feet, and while each is capable of finishing the other, both are very tough and this one will more than likely go the distance. I'd expect Noons to do more damage and land more strikes throughout en route to the decision.
PREDICTION: Noons via unanimous decision
Daniel Cormier vs. Jeff Monson (Heavyweight)
Despite Monson flying under the radar for the last several years, he represents the biggest test in former Olympic wrestler Daniel Cormier's MMA career. The undefeated Cormier has impressed with his speed and wrestling game inside the cage, and he's won seven straight fights to begin his career.
Monson is a former title challenger in the UFC and a veteran of over 50 fights. He returns to a major U.S. organization for the first time since losing a decision to Tim Sylvia at UFC 65 in 2006, and he's riding an eight fight win streak into this one.
Cormier is very clearly the better wrestler, Monson will admit as much, and if he can keep "The Snowman" planted on his back in the fight it could make for a long night for him. But Monson is dangerous in all aspects of the game, and if he can get top position on Cormier he'll test just how well the wrestler's submission defense can hold up.
I can see an upset in this one, but I think Cormier's wrestling will be the deciding factor, and he'll do well enough at getting out of trouble. I'd expect a close fight, but I think we'll see Cormier stay on track.
PREDICTION: Cormier via unanimous decision
Valentijn Overeem vs. Chad Griggs (Heavyweight)
This is essentially the finals of the alternate tournament for the Strikeforce Heavyweight World Grand Prix, with both fighters winning fights in February in the first Grand Prix event on Showtime.
Overeem's best hope for this fight is to get Griggs down early and work for submissions throughout. Even though he's got heavy hands of his own, standing toe to toe with the wild swinging Griggs could have disastrous consequences for him in this fight.
The elder brother of Alistair, Valentijn has a near .500 record in over 50 MMA fights, so consistency has never been his strong suit. And Griggs is more capable off his back than Overeem's opponent in February, Ray Sefo. I think Overeem should be looking to take it to the ground, but that doesn't mean he will or that he'll be able to, and I think the power of Griggs comes into play early.
PREDICTION: Griggs via KO in the first round
Ryo Piranha Chonan Dan The Sandman Christison Logan The Pink Pounder Clark Steve The Snake Claveau Rich No Love Clementi
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